German report: NATO has only 5 to 9 years to prepare for war with Russia

NATO countries in Europe have only „five to nine years“ to prepare for a possible Russian attack. The finding is contained in an analysis by the German Society for Foreign Policy.

Authors Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz are convinced that „the next war in Europe will only be able to be prevented effectively for a limited period of time,“ Deutsche Welle reported, citing Vesti.

Russia has already set its arms production to military mode

They point out that within the framework of the war against Ukraine, Russia has already adjusted its weapons production to a military regime.

„And after almost two years of war, Russia’s combat capability is greater than it appears at the moment. It was the ground forces that suffered the greatest losses in personnel and materiel,“ said the analysis, titled „Preventing the Next War.“

Germany and NATO were „in a race against time“ to arm their conventional forces to such an extent that their potential for intimidation exceeded Russia’s prospects for a successful attack – for example against the NATO countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Deutsche Welle wrote in its commentary .

Christian Mölling refers in this regard to military sources and to sources from the secret service in Germany.

The analysis is covered by the new directives for the development of the Bundeswehr in the field of defense, presented by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the beginning of November. Then, for the first time, he mentioned the word „warfare“ as the goal of reforms in the Bundeswehr, Deutsche Welle commented.

„With Putin’s brutal attack on Ukraine, war has returned to Europe,“ Pistorius said.

„Thus, the threat level has changed. Germany, which has the largest population and the strongest economy in the center of Europe, must be the backbone of Europe both in the field of intimidation and in the field of collective defense,“ said the German defense minister, presenting the new guidelines for the German army.

The estimated time frame in which NATO would have to step in to prevent a possible war, increasing its potential for intimidation, stems from assumptions that Russia will be able to „freeze“ the war in Ukraine. In this way, the Kremlin could buy time to restore the potential of its ground forces. At the same time, no one in Berlin believes that the war in Ukraine will end quickly. „Both sides have further military plans,“ military expert Nico Lange told Deutsche Welle.

Recently, Ukrainian Supreme Commander Valery Zaluzhny warned that the military aid provided to his country by the countries that support it so far has only led to a stalemate. The front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine have barely changed since the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in June. But in a positional war, Russia would have an advantage, since its arms industry has almost unlimited potential, as Austrian military analyst Markus Reisner warned in an interview with DV. Ukraine would be successful only if the war is not positional, and to make this possible next year, it will need the most advanced Western weapons, writes Deutsche Welle.

Many military experts are of the opinion that the front in Ukraine is becoming a battlefield that is increasingly dependent on electronics. There is more and more talk about the use of artificial intelligence in warfare.

„It’s about managing the electromagnetic field through which communications and drones are controlled,“ says Reisner. Niko Lange also confirms that in the meantime Russia can successfully jam Ukrainian weapons via satellite.

This also applies to the US-supplied HIMARS missile systems, with which Ukraine managed to break the Russian supply chain a year ago. „Russia has had great success in silencing,“ Lange points out. It refers to the interference of different types of adversary signals. This is especially important in light of the fact that almost two years after the war in Ukraine began, it is increasingly turning into a war of drones. They attack not only with weapons, but also provide pictures and, together with satellite intelligence, create transparency on the front. Russia has armed itself in this regard as well, Lange told Deutsche Welle.

Apparently, EU and US economic sanctions have not stopped Russia from continuing to acquire microchips and other high technology. In addition, it continues to have its own satellite navigation for the guidance of missiles, the military expert explains. Apparently, this was also reflected in the German Foreign Policy Association’s analysis.

There is a growing belief in Berlin – as the analysis notes – that at this rate of arms production, Russia will quickly be able to rebuild its ground forces. And so that its combat capability exceeds the current potential to intimidate NATO in a conventional war in Europe: „Experts and secret services believe that Russia will need six to ten years to decide on an attack against NATO“. points out Christian Mölling. Accordingly, NATO has a period of five to nine years to arm itself in such a way that it can defend itself against a possible attack by Russia.

„A Russian attack on NATO can no longer be ruled out,“ Mölling said.

„In this situation, the question is no longer whether Germany and NATO should be capable of war, but only – in what time frame they will be able to achieve it.“

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