In the last year, the national currency has depreciated significantly. The ruble has been depreciating for several months, 72.ru reported.

The collapse reached its peak in the summer, when the dollar broke through the „psychological“ level of 100 rubles per dollar.

Then the situation stabilized a little.

At the end of 2023, however, the US currency went up again and was trading around 91 rubles.

Economists interviewed by a 72.RU correspondent are unanimous in one opinion:

the Russian authorities will do everything possible to stay the course until the presidential elections, and then anything can happen – after all, the Russian budget must somehow be replenished.

You need to understand that in Russia, from January 1, the concept of the exchange rate changes completely.

This is probably still not a very clear story for everyone.

But we have to explain – everyone is used to the fact that the exchange rate is created in the market by free trade between the buyer and the seller of the currency.

Everyone in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank shouted that this was a huge asset and achievement of the Russian economy:

„We have a market exchange rate, we don’t regulate it.“

Now everyone doesn’t give a damn about it, and they gave the Central Bank new rights from January 1.

The Central Bank can expel from the market any broker who performs actions that the Central Bank considers harmful to the Russian economy, says Igor Lipsits, Doctor of Economic Sciences.

According to him, this means that if people prevent the central bank from maintaining the rate, they will be kicked out of the market in six months.

Therefore, consider that from the beginning of the year there will be no market exchange rate in Russia.

There will be a controlled rate of the Central Bank.

And then we have to look at what course will benefit the state.

Before the election, they will probably try to keep it around 90 [rubles], no more than 100 [rubles]. Such a psychological boundary. And then, of course, it will fall. To meet the Russian budget with such an insane increase in income of 22% per year, the ruble must be devalued.

Therefore, of course, after March, the ruble will begin to fall again. The central bank will do this. And then the ruble can go for 100-110 or more,“ the professor summarizes.

In a conversation with the correspondent of 72.RU, candidate of economic sciences Konstantin Selyanin notes that the average annual exchange rate of the dollar will be 90.1 rubles.

He also doubts the positive balance between exports and imports in 2024.

The economist suggests that in order to mitigate the situation and bring the actual figures closer to the planned ones, it is necessary to introduce a ban or restriction on the export of capital.

I can give part of the prediction absolutely right.

Until March 17, the dollar will not exceed 100 rubles. Almost certainly. Besides, there are still two weeks left. Well, so that it has nothing to do with the election.

Most likely, by the middle of the year, the exchange rate of 100 rubles and more will be the usual rate, Selyanin predicted.

Nikolai Kulbaka, a financial analyst and associate professor at RANEPA, also doubts that the dollar will reach 100 rubles before the election.

But after that, „anything can happen.“

According to him, with the planned increase in the expenditure and income part of the Russian budget, it is necessary to fill it with something.

According to the economist, there can be three options:

increasing taxes, devaluation of the ruble and issuing money.

“As soon as you start increasing, insanely, the budget spending and revenue, that means you have to fill it with something.

So basically you have three options.

You can increase taxes, you can devalue the ruble, and you can turn on the printing press – increase inflation.

Strictly speaking, the combination of these three factors will determine next year’s budget padding.

But in what condition, in what ratio it will be, it will be very difficult.

Because this is where psychological things really come into play, when employees will demand restrictions that are not always right, but psychologically important to them.

For example, a situation may indeed arise when they will hold on to those notorious 100 rubles with all their teeth. On the other hand, running a printing press and turning on inflation at the same time is also not very good,“ noted the interlocutor.

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