The year 2024 began with the least favorite day of the week for most Russians – Monday, reports MSK1.RU.

Despite the fact that there is still a week of rest ahead, Monday on the calendar still mentally refers to the beginning of the daily work.

Next come pressing issues: gas, mortgage and wages.

Last year’s economic results were not so rosy. Will anything change for the better this year?

Here is the forecast of Russian economists:

By the end of the year, the dollar will consolidate at 100 rubles to one dollar.

Last year something strange was happening with the dollar exchange rate.

In January, the levels were 67 rubles per dollar, which even corresponded to the indicators before the crisis.

Already in August, the exchange rate jumped to 100 rubles per dollar. In October it happened again.

This year, you shouldn’t place your hopes on our national currency, Russian economists point out.

The probability of returning more than a hundred rubles again is high. All this is due to inflation, which continues to grow (it was over 7% at the end of last year) and the bloated federal budget (according to the planned forecast in 2024, expenses will exceed revenues by 1.6 trillion rubles). Economist Nikolay Kulbaka told MSK1.RU.

„The probability that we will return to the 100 ruble limit is quite high, because this will be one of the ways to fulfill the planned budget,“ said the candidate of economic sciences. — The absolutely wild budget that was adopted for 2024 can only be adopted in the presence of inflation or devaluation. The alternative is rampant tax increases.

It is worth noting that our budget remains heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues.

Therefore, by the end of the year, 100 rubles per dollar may become the norm, believes the financial expert and author of the Telegram channel Economism Alexei Krichevsky.

— The dollar will almost certainly jump above 100 rubles, the only question is when.

Until the elections, the currency will remain in the range of 88-93 rubles, in the spring it will hardly go higher to consolidate the effect of the elections,“ he explained.

Already in the second quarter, the drop in the price of oil will be felt since November of this year, when on some days Urals (one of the brands of oil. — Ed. ) fell below 60 dollars per barrel.

At the same time, the amount of oil exported is decreasing, and gas still does not bring decent profits.

Property prices will remain the same, but the money will still not be enough

Over the past year, due to inflation, the main interest rate of the Central Bank has more than doubled, reaching 16%.

Let us remind you: the prime rate is the rate at which ordinary commercial banks borrow money from the Central Bank to carry out financial transactions.

Interest rates on consumer loans and mortgages directly depend on the prime rate: the higher the rate, the higher the monthly payments.

Because of the increase in budget expenditures, the authorities cannot beat inflation, that is why the basic interest rate is so high, assures Nikolay Kulbaka.

„The problem is that the central bank is unable to fight inflation while the government increases budget spending,“ he stressed.

It is worth remembering that from January 1, 2024, the minimum down payment on a mortgage will be 30% of the price of the home.

Combined with the low solvency of the population, this will lead to the fact that the prices of new buildings will remain the same, and prices on the secondary housing market will decrease due to insufficient demand, said financial expert Alexey Krichevsky.

„New builds will most likely either stay flat or fluctuate in the 2-3% range in either direction.

And the prices of secondary housing have no other way but to go down – here the drop can reach 10% without taking into account bargains, he explained to our correspondent.

And the prime rate will not have a fundamental impact — effective demand has fallen too much, especially after the down payment increase: it has already reached its maximum, there will be no progress here.

„The main interest rate will gradually decrease from April-May and by the end of the year it will stop at around 12-13% per annum“

Alexey Krichevsky, financial expert

The authorities will remain inactive on the issue of rising food prices

Last year was remembered for the rise in prices of socially important products: eggs, chicken and bread.

I particularly remember the increase in the price of eggs that was discussed on Direct Line with the President.

To prevent this from happening again, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has developed a special bill, according to which starting January 1, 2024, it will be prohibited to increase product prices by more than 30% in two months.

But 30% is a significant increase, suggested Alexey Krichevsky.

„If socially relevant products continue to rise in price at the same rate, this will have a very negative impact on the authorities’ valuations.“ But this situation is quite realistic,“ said the specialist.

„With a high probability we can say that some of the most popular products may skyrocket in price and the authorities will be inactive on this issue as price increases will simply be limited to 30% for two months as stated in a recently passed bill.

Gasoline prices will continue to rise

Gasoline prices were the second biggest pain point for Russians last year.

By the fall of 2023, the price of AI-92 gasoline overtook the spring price of AI-95 gasoline.

Its average value reached 51 rubles 60 kopecks per liter.

The authorities’ measures to limit the export of petroleum products slightly stabilized the prices, but in late December the numbers started to creep up again.

Although not at such a fast pace, fuel prices will continue to rise in 2024, explained Nikolay Kulbaka.

— We have a huge number of problems in our economy. Fuel prices are rising slowly, but will rise due to the fact that the government is spending a lot of money on the military-industrial complex.

Naturally, in these conditions, everything will become more expensive“, said the candidate of economic sciences.

„Life is going to get harder. There are no other options“

Nikolay Kulbaka, Candidate of Economic Sciences

Pensions will increase slightly, but wages will remain at the same level

From 1 January 2024, the government will raise pensions and the minimum wage (minimum wage). Pensions will be increased by 7.5%, taking into account the level of inflation, and the minimum wage – by as much as 18.5%. As a result, the minimum wage will be a „generous“ 19,242 rubles per month – about BGN 372 at today’s rate.

According to Rosstat, income growth in 2023 is 5.3%.

Are wages expected to rise in 2024?

Unlikely, believes Nikolay Kulbaka.

– Pensions will increase. But as for income growth, I doubt it.

They haven’t been growing on anyone lately.

All claims about growth in household income are calculated at the official level of inflation, but it is difficult to say what the real level of inflation is,” he concluded.

Due to a labor shortage, companies are forced to raise wages in order not to lose their employees.

Therefore, real income growth is possible, but not higher than inflation, Alexey Krichevsky added.

— The important thing here is that an inflationary spiral has essentially already started.

Workers are considering higher-wage jobs, companies are being forced to raise wages and raise the price of their product, and so on – otherwise employees can’t be retained, he said.

—Therefore, there will certainly be some increase in real disposable income, but it is unlikely to be much higher than inflation.

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